Let's Do the MATH: Yang 2028

 "Every system is perfectly designed to get the results it gets."                                                 — W. Edwards Deming

If you look at our current political landscape and see chaos, division, and a complete inability to solve 21st-century problems, remember Deming’s words. Our system isn't "broken"—it’s performing exactly as it was designed to. It was built for a world of steam engines and the American Dream, not AGI and global competition and warfare.

If we want different results, we need to change the system. We need to move Forward. And that’s exactly why Andrew Yang needs to run for President in 2028, and why you should learn about him and his ideas, support him and vote for him. 

From Job Creator to Chief Futurist

Before he was the Presidential candidate with perhaps the most outrageous discrimination in the news outlets (more on that later), Andrew Yang was on the front lines of the American economy. Through his nonprofit, Venture for America, he spent years trying to spark entrepreneurship in cities like Detroit and Cleveland. But he saw a hard truth the data couldn't hide: you can’t "out-hustle" a robot.
He realized we aren't just in a rough patch; we are in the middle of the "Great Displacement." 

My journey into Yang's vision actually started with a bit of a "eureka" moment. I was deep into his second book, The War on Normal People, when it suddenly dawned on me: I had read this author before. Years earlier, I’d picked up a book called Smart People Should Build Things and loved its message about redirecting our country's best talent away from "paper-shuffling" on Wall Street and back into the real economy.

His library of authored books follows his journey from promoting entrepreneurship to promoting Universal Basic Income (UBI) and then reflecting on the problems in our political system that he witnessed first-hand:

Smart People Should Build Things (2014): The book that started it all. Yang argues that our country’s talent is being misallocated and that we need to reconnect our "human capital" with the actual building of businesses and solutions in the real world.

The War on Normal People (2018): The foundational text. Yang explains how automation is hollowing out the middle class and why "normal" jobs—trucking, retail, administrative work—are in the crosshairs of progress.

Forward: Notes on the Future of Our Democracy (2021): This is the manual for the system reboot. He breaks down why the "duopoly" is incentivized to ignore us and how we can use Ranked-Choice Voting (RCV) and Open Primaries to hack the system.

The Last Election (2023): A speculative thriller (co-written with Stephen Marche) about a constitutional collapse. It’s a sobering look at what happens if we don't update our political software.

Hey Yang, Where’s My Thousand Bucks? (2026): His newest release—a witty, candid memoir of his journey from "random man" to political pioneer. It’s the perfect mix of "protopian" hope and hard-earned political reality.

The "Longshot" That Could: Andrew Yang runs for President (2020)

Andrew Yang’s 2020 run is one of the most fascinating examples of "hacking" the political system. When he filed to run in 2017, he was a complete unknown, but he gained massive traction by bypassing traditional gatekeepers and speaking directly to the internet. His 2019 appearance on The Joe Rogan Experience was the spark, transforming him from a "fringe" candidate into the leader of the Yang Gang, a devoted, digital-native fanbase.

The Invisible Candidate: The Media Blackout

Despite his surging numbers and fundraising prowess, Yang faced a staggering "media blackout" that became a rallying cry for his supporters. Major networks like CNN and MSNBC frequently omitted him from candidate graphics, even when he was polling significantly higher than the candidates they included. In one famous instance, a network displayed a list of top candidates and included someone polling at 1% while leaving out Yang, who was at 3%. 

During the debates, he consistently received the least speaking time; in the November 2019 debate, he wasn't even called on for the first 30 minutes. An analysis by Business Insider later confirmed that Yang had the highest "deficit" of any candidate between his polling strength and his actual media coverage, suggesting the "perfectly designed system" was working overtime to keep his "different" ideas out of the mainstream conversation.

Beyond the media blackout, Andrew Yang’s 2020 run was plagued by a series of "glitches in the matrix" that felt less like bad luck and more like a system actively rejecting a foreign object. For an optimistic futurist, these are the ultimate examples of why the "plumbing" of our democracy needs a total overhaul.

The "Muted Mic" Incident

One of the most viral and frustrating moments of the 2020 primary occurred during the very first Democratic debate. Supporters noticed that while Yang was on stage, he was barely speaking. It wasn't just a lack of aggression; Yang later claimed that his microphone was actually turned off when he wasn't being directly addressed. While NBC denied any intentional technical issues, video clips circulated showing Yang trying to interject while his mouth moved but no sound came out. For a candidate who had fought so hard just to get on that stage, having his literal voice silenced was a massive blow to his momentum.

The Iowa Caucus "Coding Error"

If every system is designed for its output, the 2020 Iowa Caucus was designed for chaos. Yang had spent a massive amount of his campaign’s "human capital" on the ground in Iowa, hoping for a surprise breakout. Instead, the reporting app—built by a shadowy startup called Shadow Inc.—suffered a "coding error" that delayed results for days.
    • The Result: The "momentum" that candidates usually get from a strong showing in Iowa was completely neutralized. By the time the math was finally sorted out, the news cycle had already moved on to New Hampshire. For a "math-first" candidate, losing the ability to show his data-driven growth in real-time was a critical setback.

The "John Yang" and "Name Omissions"

The media blackout wasn't just about ignoring him; it was about the subtle ways they minimized his legitimacy.
    • The Wrong Name: At one point, NBC News displayed a graphic of Yang crowd-surfing but identified him as "John Yang." * The "Erasure" Graphics: On at least a dozen occasions, CNN and MSNBC aired graphics showing the "Top 6" or "Top 10" candidates. They would frequently include candidates polling at 1% while leaving Yang out, even when he was polling at 3% or 4%.

The Ohio "Bureaucratic Loophole"

Perhaps the most "systemic" surprise came from Ohio. Despite his supporters gathering three times the required signatures to get him on the ballot, he was disqualified due to an "awkwardly-worded law" regarding a technical paperwork issue (he didn't include a specific statement of candidacy on the signature headers). While other candidates had their paperwork accepted despite similar minor errors, the state's Secretary of State initially denied his access, forcing his team into a legal battle just to be an option for voters.

The AI Imperative

In 2020, Yang was often dismissed as a "doom-and-gloom" tech guy as he prophesied the AI-powered technological unemployment that could challenge work as we know it in ways that are fundamentally different than technological upheavals of the past. Now, with the explosion of generative AI and automation since 2023, his core warnings are no longer theoretical—they are daily headlines. This gives him "I told you so" credibility that few other politicians possess. 

With Generative AI disrupting everything from coding to Hollywood, the "work-to-survive" model is hitting a wall. The tech founders and gurus closest to the technologies are the ones who are speaking out the most about its dangers. For me personally, the more I learn and see the power of it, the more I convinced I am that these concerns are legitimate as well. It is not just a buzzword, it is powerful, which can be great for some, and devastating for many. 

Yang’s view is that technological unemployment is a success we weren't prepared for. UBI is the bridge that lets us transition to a future where we work because we want to, not because we’ll starve otherwise.

The Freedom Dividend: A Floor to Stand On

Yang’s core solution—Universal Basic Income (UBI)—is the ultimate system upgrade. By giving every American adult $1,000 a month, we provide a "Freedom Dividend" that recognizes our value as shareholders in the richest nation in history. Now, before you gawk at the incredulity of such a proposal and the math of how to support it, let me assure you, he lays this out in great detail in The War on Normal People in a logical way. Also, it’s not a radical new idea; it’s a classic one that almost made it:

The Proponents: From Thomas Paine to Martin Luther King Jr., thinkers have argued that a floor under every citizen is the only way to ensure true liberty.

The Nixon Near-Miss: In the early 1970s, Richard Nixon’s Family Assistance Plan passed the House twice. We were this close to having a basic income floor decades ago before it got caught in the gears of partisan Senate politics.

Since Yang's first run at the office, UBI has moved from a fringe idea to a mainstream debate. Dozens of cities across the U.S. have run guaranteed basic income pilots with positive data, making his signature policy feel much more "vetted" than it did eight years ago.

Interestingly, the terminology is shifting. You’ll often hear it called "Guaranteed Basic Income" (GBI) now rather than UBI. The distinction is that these city programs are usually "targeted" (given only to low-income residents) rather than "universal" (given to everyone regardless of wealth).

Major Cities & Recent Trials

While dozens of cities have dipped their toes in, a few major programs stand out for their scale and recent findings:

Cook County & Chicago, IL: This remains one of the largest and most significant programs. Following a massive $42 million pilot that gave $500 a month to over 3,000 residents from 2022 – Jan 2025, Cook County recently became the first in the nation to establish permanent funding for guaranteed income. The success here was measured in "prevention." By providing $500 a month to 3,250 households, the county argued it prevented thousands of evictions. Public safety experts noted that housing stability is one of the strongest predictors of lower neighborhood crime.

Austin, TX: Their pilot specifically looked at housing stability in gentrifying neighborhoods from 2022 – 2024. Results showed that participants spent over 50% of the cash on housing costs, significantly improving their housing security compared to low-income residents who didn't receive the funds. Researchers found that in the specific communities where the pilot was active, violent crime dropped by 44% during the experiment years. The logic was that the "floor" prevented the kind of high-stakes financial stress that leads to domestic violence and street-level robbery.

Denver, CO: A recent study of their program focused on the unhoused population, showing that the cash helped many move into stable housing and reduced emergency room visits. While Denver didn't report a massive drop in city-wide crime stats, they saw a 50% decrease in the use of emergency shelters and a doubling of people in stable housing. From a public safety perspective, this reduced the "public nuisance" calls and police interactions that often occur with unhoused populations. This squares with Yang's position that the concept essentially "pays for itself" through reduced public service costs, and provides real-world evidence. 

Boulder, CO & Compton, CA: These cities have focused on how frequency matters. Results from Compton suggested that getting smaller payments twice a month was more effective at reducing debt than getting a large lump sum once a quarter.

Many UBI trials across the country were heavily supported by federal funds from the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA). Those federal dollars were designed as one-time "bridge" funding during the COVID-19 recovery. Once that money dried up in 2024 and 2025, the cities were forced to choose between using its own general funds (taxpayer dollars) or ending the programs. Without the federal safety net, the political will to keep the checks flowing evaporated.

While Austin was trying to keep its program alive, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton was busy dismantling a similar program in Houston (Harris County). Paxton sued Harris County, arguing that "no-strings-attached" payments violate the Texas Constitution, which prohibits the "gratuitous" giving of public funds to individuals without a direct benefit to the state. The legal victory against Houston created a roadmap for state leaders to kill these programs. Austin’s leadership knew that even if they found the money, they would likely face a massive, expensive lawsuit from the state that they might not win.

This is exactly why Yang argues that UBI must be Federal. If it’s tied to the national VAT (Value Added Tax) and the federal budget, it can’t be picked apart by a local tax revolt or a state attorney general.

 

Introducing the Forward Party

Operating on the hypothesis that perhaps a Presidential bid was too big a start for someone who seemingly came out of nowhere, Andrew Yang set his sights on running for the mayor of New York City.  The irony of that race, as he’s mentioned on his blog and in interviews, is that many people who wanted to vote for his "protopian" vision couldn't because they weren't registered Democrats by the city's early deadline. That "math" is exactly why he now focuses so heavily on Open Primaries—he wants to make sure that the next time a candidate with big ideas runs, they aren't locked out by the "plumbing" of the system.

It was actually his experience in that race—specifically seeing how the closed primary system excluded many independent-minded voters—that served as a major catalyst for his decision to leave the party. He officially changed his registration to Independent in October 2021, shortly after the mayoral race ended, and launched the Forward Party immediately afterward.

The motto of the Forward Party (FWD) is "Not Left. Not Right. Forward." With the mission of "rebooting" American democracy from the ground up, they focus on the "plumbing" of democracy—Ranked-Choice Voting and Open Primaries—so that candidates like Yang can actually win without being "spoilers."  

As of early 2026, the party’s achievements have focused on building a "bottom-up" infrastructure rather than just top-ticket vanity runs:

    • Electoral Wins: The party has successfully elected several local officials and shifted representatives to their line. A major milestone occurred in Utah, where the party gained official status and currently holds a seat in the State Senate (via Sen. Emily Buss).

    • Ballot Access: Moving toward their goal of 50-state access by 2028, they have already secured official party status in several key states, including Colorado, Florida, Utah, and South Carolina, with active "Forward-Independence" affiliates in Minnesota.

    • Candidate Endorsements: In April 2026, the party unveiled its first slate of Congressional endorsements for the upcoming midterms, backing a mix of independents and reform-minded candidates who pledge to prioritize problem-solving over party loyalty.

    • Membership Growth: The party has built a massive digital footprint, claiming tens of thousands of members and a growing donor base that includes tech leaders and "disaffected" voters who represent the 36%–40% of Americans now identifying as Independent.
    
By focusing on local offices and the rules of the game, Forward is essentially "beta testing" a new version of American politics, preparing the terrain for a national breakthrough in the 2028 cycle.

 

The Path to the White House

The 2028 field is shaping up to be one of the most crowded and high-stakes races in decades, largely because both parties are facing a massive "identity crisis" regarding their future direction. If Yang ran again, he's not going to jump back into the Democratic popularity contest. He would run as an independent, and undoubtedly would proactively counteract those barriers he was surprised to uncover in his first Presidential run. 

To get him to the White House by 2028, we have to follow the math:

Yin and Yang: Two Ways to Win

To get Andrew Yang into the White House by 2028, the "math" doesn't require a traditional electoral strategy of getting to the clean 270-vote majority, which third-party candidates almost never win, his path could utilize a constitutional maneuver called a Contingent Election. Yang only needs enough electoral votes to ensure that neither the Republican nor the Democrat gets to 270. If he wins just a handful of states, the election is "thrown to the House."

Yang wouldn't just look at "Red vs. Blue." He would target states with three specific traits: Open Primaries, Ranked-Choice Voting (RCV), and High Tech/Independent Populations.

Here is the breakdown of the electoral map he would need to "hack" the system.

 

State	EVs	Why it's in the Yang Column
Alaska	3	Uses RCV. He is highly popular with their independent, "off-grid" voting base.
Maine	4	Uses RCV. New England voters have a history of supporting pragmatic independents.
Utah	6	A "Forward Party" stronghold. The tech-heavy "Silicon Slopes" prefer his "problem-solver" vibe over partisan firebrands.
Colorado	10	A "protopian" hub. His focus on sustainability and AI resonates with the Denver/Boulder tech corridor.
Minnesota	10	His self-declared "launch state." High levels of civic engagement and a history of third-party success (e.g., Jesse Ventura).
TOTAL	33	This is enough to prevent a 270 majority for either side.

The Contingent Election

If the map above happens, the 12th Amendment of the Constitution kicks in. This is the most likely way a third-party candidate like Yang wins.
    • The House Decides: The House of Representatives chooses the President from the top three finishers.
    • The "One State, One Vote" Rule: This is the wildcard. Instead of 435 individual votes, each state gets exactly one vote. California gets 1 vote; Wyoming gets 1 vote.
    • The Strategy: Yang would position himself as the "Unity Candidate." If the country is deadlocked and polarized, he would bet on 26 state delegations choosing him as the "safe" compromise to avoid a civil standoff between the two major parties.

The 270 "Purple Surge"

Securing 270 electoral votes is the steepest climb in American politics for anyone outside the two-party system. As an Independent candidate, Yang cannot rely on the "automatic" base of voters that a Democrat or Republican enjoys. Yang's path to 270 is built on the premise that a significant portion of the electorate (which is currently over 40% Independent in some states) is ready to abandon both major parties. He would need to build a coalition of "Pragmatic Independents," "Disaffected Democrats," and "Future-Focused Republicans." 

To hit the majority of the electoral college votes, Yang would have to execute a "Core-to-Coast" strategy, flipping the script on how modern campaigns are won. To reach the majority, he would have to win several "High-Independent" states and then break into the "Blue Wall" or "Sun Belt."

Phase 1: The Politically Forward(-thinking) Strongholds (55 EVs)
He starts with states where the rules or culture favor third parties:
    • Alaska (3) & Maine (4): These states use Ranked-Choice Voting, which eliminates the "spoiler" fear and allows him to win on second-choice votes.
    • Utah (6): One of the Forward Party's strongest hubs. Its tech-savvy, pragmatic culture is a natural fit for "Human-Centered Capitalism."
    • Minnesota (10): Yang’s self-declared launch state. It has a high registration rate (over 80%) and a history of independent-minded voters.
    • Arizona (11) & Nevada (6): These states have seen independent registration soar to over 33% by 2026.
    • New Mexico (5): Just this week, Yang officially launched the NM Forward Party in Santa Fe. The state has a strong "independent minor party" tradition and a voter base that is increasingly exhausted by the border/energy gridlock.
    • Maryland (10): As of 2026, the Maryland Forward Party is one of the most active in the nation, already running a slate of 8+ candidates for state and local offices. The high-tech corridor between D.C. and Baltimore is "prime Yang territory."
 

Phase 2: The "Protopian" Tech Hubs (161 EVs)
He must flip states that value his focus on AI, sustainability, and the "Future of Work":
    • Colorado (10), Washington (12), & Oregon (8): These states have strong "experimental living" and tech-centric populations.
    • California (54): This is the "Big Boss" of the map. As a tech entrepreneur, Yang would need to leverage Silicon Valley support to flip the largest prize in the union. Without California, the math for an independent nearly evaporates.
    • New York (28): His home base. He must flip the "Blue" establishment by winning over the massive 25% independent bloc.
    • Georgia (16) & North Carolina (16): Booming tech sectors in Atlanta and the Research Triangle (NC) align with his futurist brand.
    • Virginia (13) & New Hampshire (4): Yang can appeal here to the highly educated, "data-hungry" electorates, with his math and well-thought-out detailed policy ideas. 
 

Phase 3: The Displaced Rust Belt (61 EVs)
This is where he wins the election by speaking directly to workers losing ground to AI. He must convince the Rust Belt that UBI is the only solution to the AI-driven job losses they are seeing in 2026–2028:
    • Michigan (15), Pennsylvania (19), Ohio (17), & Wisconsin (10): These states are the front lines of the automation crisis. If he can prove his "I told you so" credibility here, he takes the presidency.

 

The Timeline

To be a serious contender, the "money machine" has to start early to combat the massive war chests of the two major parties.

Pre-Launch (Now – Late 2026): Yang is currently in the "infrastructure phase." He doesn't need to fundraise for himself yet, but he is raising money for the Forward Party to secure ballot access in all 50 states—a process that costs millions. 

The "Exploratory" Phase (Early 2027): This is when he would likely file a Statement of Candidacy with the FEC. Legally, once he raises or spends more than $5,000, he must register.

The "Goldilocks" Start Date: Historically, serious independent candidates need to start their primary fundraising by Spring/Summer 2027 to ensure they have enough capital to hire staff for the grueling petition drives required in late 2027.

Fall 2027: Yang hits the 15% polling threshold to force his way onto the debate stage. Once the country sees the "Math" again, the surge begins. 

Election Day (Nov 7, 2028): He must win at least 2–3 states to ensure no one hits 270. 

The Contingent Vote (Jan 6, 2029): This is the day the House would officially vote to make him President.

Main Party Candidates Getting On Board

It's worth mentioning that there is a "New Guard" taking inspiration from Yang. They aren't just copying his notes; they are taking his "protopian" theories and attempting to bake them into actual government policy at the state and federal levels.

By early 2026, these figures have moved past the "fringe" label and are positioning themselves as the "competent futurists" of the 2028 cycle. Here is the breakdown of the major players, their platforms, and their viability. 

 

Josh Shapiro (Governor, PA)

The Platform: Shapiro is the "Speed of Business" Democrat. While Yang talked about the coming automation crisis, Shapiro is trying to "capture" the AI boom to save Pennsylvania’s economy.

The "Shapiro Standard": He signed a nation-leading executive order for safe AI adoption in state government and partnered with OpenAI to pilot ChatGPT Enterprise for state employees.

The Move: He is currently pushing GRID (Governor’s Responsible Infrastructure Development), which aims to make PA a global hub for energy-hungry data centers—essential for the AI era—while trying to balance environmental pushback.

2028 Potential: High. He is consistently ranked as a top-tier moderate who can win over the "Displaced Rust Belt" you mentioned in Phase 3. He takes the "data-first" approach of Yang but adds the polish of a popular swing-state governor.
 

Wes Moore (Governor, MD)

The Platform: Moore’s brand is "Work, Wages, and Wealth." He has adopted a proactive stance on the "AI Economy" that mirrors Yang’s warnings about workforce displacement.

The Move: In early 2026, Moore launched a $4 million AI Workforce Investment, creating grants for "upskilling" and "reskilling" workers specifically for the AI economy. He often speaks about "service-to-career" pathways, which aligns with Yang’s interest in intentional communities and non-traditional labor.

2028 Potential: Rising. Moore is a powerful orator who can bridge the gap between the progressive and moderate wings. His focus on "future-proofing" the workforce makes him a natural intellectual ally for Forward-leaning voters.

 

Ro Khanna (U.S. Rep, CA-17)

The Platform: Representing Silicon Valley, Khanna is the "Architect of the New Social Contract." If Yang is the one who identified the problem, Khanna is the one trying to legislate the solution in Congress.

The Move: He recently introduced the Creator Bill of Rights (2026), a direct response to the "Platform Economy" (Uber, YouTube, TikTok). It calls for portable benefits (a major Yang pillar)—allowing health care and retirement to follow the worker, not the employer.

2028 Potential: The Progressive Wildcard. Khanna is often the lone voice warning about "oligarchic capture" of AI. He could secure a nomination if the party decides to lean into "Economic Patriotism" mixed with "High-Tech Regulation."

 

The GOP Angle: Vivek Ramaswamy

On the Republican side, Vivek Ramaswamy (currently running for Governor of Ohio) has adopted the "outsider/disruptor" energy that Yang once held. While their solutions differ (Vivek favors cutting the "Administrative State" rather than UBI), they both appeal to the same "System is Broken" demographic. Vivek is the most likely Republican to adopt Yang-like rhetoric regarding the "technological displacement of the soul" and the need for a new national identity.

 

Do the MATH: Support Yang 2028

The biggest variable is the state of the country. If the next two years see significant economic disruption due to AI—or if the public remains deeply dissatisfied with the two-party "status quo"—the appetite for a data-driven, non-ideological problem solver could be higher than ever.

While he hasn't officially declared for 2028, he recently released a new book, Hey Yang, Where’s My Thousand Bucks?, which many see as a way to keep his policy ideas in the public eye as the next cycle approaches. He has teased it a number of times on his podcast, which has evolved from Yang Speaks into the aptly titled Andrew Yang Podcast.

Our current system is perfectly designed to give us the frustration we feel today. If you want a different result, you need to change the input.

Learn about UBI. Join the Forward Party. Let's stop fighting over the 20th century and start building the 21st. 

Resources to learn more: 

TED Talk: Poverty isn't a lack of character; it's a lack of cash: Skeptical about the merits of UBI? Watch this with an open mind to start. 

The War on Normal People: Get the book, learn how Yang does the math. It's pretty enlightening and hard to argue with. 

Raising the Floor by Andy Stern: Another great book about UBI and why poverty is a problem for everyone

Andrew Yang Podcast: Keep up with the great thinker's latest thinkings. I have gotten great book recommendations and been inspired by a number of these! 

Forward Party website and news: See the momentum in real time and find out how you can get involved!

This Moment Isn't That Special

Picture generated by AI based on the text of this post.

I'm a self-proclaimed optimistic futurist. While I've been adopted a wait-and-see or give-it-more-time approach to certain technologies, I've also been an early adopter of those technologies I see as most promising. At work, I am a problem solver and lead a team of problem solvers. In my personal life, I strive for a more perfect, automated, easy, comfortable life. I read a lot, I write a lot, I think a lot. A lot of what I study, think and write about is the future - technology, economics, culture, systems, everything that we humans can control and mold towards a more perfect protopian future. 

So it's no surprise the algorithms recommended to me a show about the future, and I obligingly watched it. Underwhelming is an understatement. But more than that, I had a visceral reaction to some of the claims made. Now, granted, this wasn't an expert account from a fellow futurist. It was hosted and organized by a futurist, but the interviews were with various groups of people operating at various levels of exceptionalism, including absolute normalcy. 

Many of the claims from the interviewees that bothered me the most was the repeated notion that we're presently at an inflection point - in technology, environment and political concerns, yes, but more so - in our actual humanity. The fear that AI will take our jobs and modes of artistic creation such that it robs us of our ability to perceive and create, and that we therefore need to decide what the minimal viable requirements are to call ourselves human, and defend those things, was a few steps too far for me. 

Rather than being compelled by these empowered individuals seeing an opportunity to seize this turning point and make the world a better place, I actually started considering that people in the 1970's probably thought the same thing, and people in the 1930's, and people during the Renaissance, and how many other times in our human history? 

See, fears about technology replacing humans has been around for decades or centuries. Is this time different? Sure, there are arguments for that. But different, how? We're already seeing a backlash against generative AI not delivering the promises of complete automation and replacement of people, and the ROI is in question across the board. It has great potential, to be sure, but we've also identified very early on its tendency to hallucinate and provide complete inaccurate information with great confidence. It's flaws and faults were seen before anyone even noticed it wasn't delivering those promises of employee displacement. So why in the world did we even let those fears build up, and why are we surprised now about the fall of the hype? 

The political unrest is a lot. But is it more than we've seen before? What were those hippies protesting anyways? 

Violence is actually down in many areas. 

Mental health awareness has grown in leaps and bounds. 

The last two thoughts may actually be connected. How cool is that? 

But no, I am struck by actually had ordinary this time is. So why do so many people think we are at a turning point? Is it empowering to this "now is our moment?" If so, if that's what you need to feel compelled to act in a way that will positively improve the future, then go ahead and think that. But will you be disappointed when it turns out it was just another year in another decade with another technology that was interesting? 

Sometimes when I tell people I'm an optimist, they respond that they'd rather be realists. I mean, I get it. I'm not blind to the problems, nor do I want to ignore them. I like to believe I am centered in realism, but with an optimistic direction, rather than a doomsday view of the world. But when I heard these proclamations that now is the time to change the direction of humanity, I felt like those pessimists parading as realists. 

Rather than thinking it's now or never, I believe we wake up every day with the potential of what that day could bring, what we could accomplish. I used to wake up long before dawn and go running or walking in the dark. There's a conspiratory feeling that would wash over me that I'm up before everyone else and therefore I got a head start on them today. I don't walk or run outside currently because I hate Texas, so I don't get this feeling as frequently right now. But I still hold the potential of each day we get in high regard. And a year from now, five years from now, two decades from now, I hope I will still wake up every day with a day of potential ahead of me. 

A Voice-Activated Speaker Does Not A Smart Home Make

I'm a futurist and a self-proclaimed cautious technophile. What I mean is, I love to see new technologies and what they can do for our lives, but I am not already, or even usually, an early adopter. When I think the tech is too buggy or not yet sufficiently practical, I hold back and watch, and see which brands win the race. My fascination and strategy heralds back to the first time I heard about a CD burner you could buy and use to put data or music on CDs. The ad was in a magazine I was reading, and the new-fangled device cost over $1000. I knew I wanted one, but not yet; the burn speed was slow, the tech was just too new, and I was a kid who'd have a hard time convincing my parents I needed a $1000 toy. I was also one of the last along my peers to convert from a flip phone to a smart phone, and to ditch my handheld Garmin GPS device. I'd be lying if I said sentimentality wasn't a part of the latter transition, but the primary reason was that early smart phone navigation just wasn't as good as my aging Garmin device.

On the contrary, as you may have read elsewhere, I jumped in with both feet, even against others' cautionary advice, in buying one of the first 500 Chevrolet Volts. I did so for two primary reasons and two secondary reasons (because I never do anything for just one good reason): namely, (1) I believed in the

technology, because unlike phones and CD burners, cars are highly regulated and I had faith that GM wouldn't release a bad car, (2) I presumed that GM would "pull the plug" on the Volt product line before it really established itself, #FOMO, (3) I wanted to show that there was market demand for the electric car or mostly-electric hybrid, as well as for the public chargers, and (4) I thought I was the perfect test subject to demonstrate the tech in real life and tell a fabulous story. L'il Red, as I called her, had some "new car model quirks" as could only be expected, but overall, exceeded and outperformed all expectations. I initially admitted that it wasn't a truly economically wise decision, because based on the expected long-term life of the battery and the cost of replacing said battery, even projecting some reduction in price over that time, paired with the high upfront price tag, it was still cheaper to buy an economic, efficient gas car. But, after living with her for a few months, I got smarter around the benefits, and performed an elaborate total cost of ownership analysis, including everything from the cost of the electric that replaced that gas, to the higher insurance premium and registration costs, to the minimized wear and tear on brake pads thanks to regenerative braking, and the bi-annual oil change she required. I calculated that the break even point, compared to an economic and efficient gas car, came at about 8 years, assuming no battery replacement and moderate battery degradation. It would be a stretch, I knew, because the battery had a warranty of just 7 years, and I knew my car would be operating in one of the most battery-hostile environments in the country - Phoenix, AZ. The crushing heat, indeed, so severely impacted the Nissan Leafs many of my local peers bought at the same time, that they were able to pursue litigation and return the cars under lemon laws. Take that, Volt Nay-Sayers! But I had to wait 8 years for the real happy ending; Chevy Volt # 492 is still going strong and fast approaching her 9th birthday. While a part of me knows she can turn the corner any day now, and I'd be better off getting rid of her because she does, a part of me just wants to see it to the end, to see just how far she'll go. And the practical side of me knows I'm driving for literally pennies per mile now, having no car payment and rarely needing gas or maintenance, and it's hard to think about taking all those burdens on again, remembering to fill up before work or getting her oil changed every few months, or paying on a car loan. Ugh!

Now back to the point of the story. I guess Smart Home tech may still be late in the early adopter phase, or just barely into the early part of the early majority phase, I'm not quite sure. Needless to say, I was a hard sell on this one. Buying into Smart Home tech, I realized early on, meant buying into a brand's ecosystem, and being locked in by an overwhelming cost to convert. That was cause for great hesitation, and decision paralysis when I did decide to invest.

But my hesitation was probably driven more by the lack of clarity around the value it would bring to my life. I imagined walking around my house, verbally arguing with every device and talking to my speakers like they were a servant I was micromanaging, and pulling the plug, resetting devices and manually flipping switches when they refused to do as I said. Would I ever start talking to it like a friend? Not in this decade, I thought, but someday, probably. I just really couldn't see how talking to a device was that big of an improvement over flipping a light switch or an app on my phone. But I was also curious, maybe it would be an improvement. After all, I didn't think a laptop would ever be a practical replacement for a power house desktop where I had a designated spot to work on, until I had a laptop and never touched a desktop again. And I didn't think a tablet was needed when I had a laptop and a phone, but it found a place in my device spectrum that added value too. So, in the same way that my curiosity around AR led me to insist we play Pokemon Go, I knew I needed to get some Smart Home stuff going. But which brand? And what devices do I really want? Unlike Smartphones that are all-encompassing in their technology adoption, buy the phone and you're now a Smartphone user, Smart Home covers an array of inputs and results and automation or lack thereof.

I did a lot of research, and at the time of my decision point in late 2018, I came to two conclusions: Google was currently better at interpreting and responding, and Alexa was going to get better in the future. I weighed the other pro's and con's. Amazon has Audible, and I listen to a lot of audio books. Google Home would have to stream from my phone to play, while Echos can pull directly from my Audible account. I already used Amazon Music as my primary source of music - make fun of me if you will here, I know that's not what all the kids are using these days, but every time I've tried another streaming service, I've found myself wanting to go back to Amazon Music. I even put myself on an Amazon diet by listening exclusively to the music streaming services Google Home uses for a couple months. I have a lot of faith in Google's ability to grow their databases and for their assistant to become more human-like. But beyond search, there isn't much else that I use or need from Google. I don't really use Google Calendar, so its not like I would use it to remind me of events, etc. On the other hand, I buy things from Amazon, and much of my media consumption is through Amazon. So I was leaning towards Amazon, but still not 100% convinced it would properly interpret voice commands as well as the data-powered Google.

I started out brand-agnostic, buying plugs that work with both Amazon's Alexa and Google Home. I stumbled across a Google Home Mini that had been returned and was marked down as a result, so I bought it. Then, when Amazon was having a sale on its devices, I bought an Echo Dot. I put the Echo Dot in my bedroom and the Mini in my kitchen, and I tested them head-to-head to see which one responded more accurately and more hilariously. I also noticed the sound quality while listening to music and audio books. In the end, Amazon's ecosystem and quality won me over.

While the funny Easter eggs and silly games are entertaining from time to time, I still wasn't sure what to do to make my home "Smart." My boyfriend bought me an Ecobee thermostat for Christmas. I know Nest is well-known and popular or whatever, but I had an older model of Ecobee at my first house and I loved the features, internet connectivity and smart phone app. We installed the Ecobee and connected that to my Alexa. I bought an Echo and a few more Dots to put around the house. I started to really enjoy listening to music or audiobooks in multiple rooms, although the audiobooks on multiple speakers was wonky and didn't always work properly or at all. I had three things on smart plugs: a floor lamp in my family room, a desk lamp by my bed, and the Christmas tree lights. I set a digital timer on the Christmas tree lights, but also added it to routines to turn on like when I came home.
My new house came with a wifi and app-compatible garage door opener, which I've used extensively in lieu of bringing a house key and fumbling with the door lock on my morning runs. However, the garage door opener and app don't work with Alexa, only Google. Can't we all just (make our apps) get along? I'm not saying I would use it often, but it would be nice to be able to shut the garage door with Alexa. Ah well, it all goes to my phone and I can still control it from there.

Here's the thing: I just don't think a few smart speakers and plugs that turn lights on, and even a connected thermostat, make my home smart. But what other options are there? Dimming lights or color changing lights? I just don't see the need for that. I know I've said that about laptops and tablets before, but really, this time. The commercials show people using a video screen to check their cameras, but again, I just have a hard time seeing the need for that in my case. Maybe if I had a pet pig I was worried about, or a baby for that matter, but I have neither.

Then, there was an attempted burglary in my neighborhood, stopped by a Ring doorbell, so I decided to, for the first time in my life, get some cameras for security. I'm a big believer in minimizing subscription fees, however (says the girl who hasn't lived without Amazon Prime for a decade, and subscribes to Audible and Kindle Unlimited and Amazon Music Unlimited…). With cameras, I really don't see a need to pay for monitoring or really, anything fancy. I just want the piece of mind that if something happened, I'd capture it on video and be able to show the police, or have evidence of who or what or whatever. After another extensive read of many camera reviews, I went with the Amazon Cloud Cams, because you can have three on your account with 24 hours of footage for free, and the subscription to have more access and more cameras and more

features was reasonably priced as well. I haven't paid for the subscription yet at this point, and am quite happy with the freebie service on my three cameras. I even got a fourth camera and set it up on my boyfriend's phone, it's a wider view of an otherwise redundant angle from what I have on my phone, just to capture more if/when needed. The bonus is, if the Amazon in-home delivery thing ever takes off, I have the proper camera for it already (amateur tip: I actually bought the special edition camera made just for this purpose, although I'm not sure its any different than my other Cloud Cams).

Well, wouldn't you know it, the camera facing my front door doesn't work well unless the front porch light is on. I live on a fairly busy street so when the porch light is off, every car driving by with its headlights on, which should be every car at night hopefully, sets off the motion sensor. I suffered through turning the light on in the evening and trying to remember to turn it off in the morning for far too many weeks while I once again hesitated on what technological solution I wanted to use to attack this new issue I created for myself. I was going between a smart light switch - which would be complicated because the specific lights were on a switch with three others - or smart bulbs which I could program and control with Alexa but would likely need a hub, or an unsmart solution which could be dusk-to-dawn light bulbs, or normal bulbs with dusk-to-dawn sensors attached between the bulb and the light fixture, or I could just get better at turning the lights on and off, or I could suck it up and leave them on all the time because it didn't really cost that much to have them on during the day anyways. I suffered and suffered, and finally decided I couldn't live with the current situation of either leaving them on or remembering to turn them off and on. I didn't love the idea of buying the dusk-to-dawn adapters, because they make the bulbs stick out further from the fixtures. I knew this from experience at my last house. Pro tip: If you go this route, do not use CFL bulbs. The reason is that when the darkness triggers the power, the CFL takes just a split second too long to warm up and light up, causing the adapter to read that as a different source of light, like the sun, and then sending the signal to turn off. The CFL turns off, it gets dark again, and it triggers the CFL to turn on, and so on. The result is a constant flickering that is unattractive, but also wears out your 7-year CFL bulbs to a matter of days of life. I also didn't want to buy dusk-to-dawn lightbulbs or smart lightbulbs because those would have to be replaced over and over again. But, my light switch wouldn't easily be converted to a smart switch because of all the other switches it was associated with. So I continued to suffer. Finally, there was a sale on dusk-to-dawn lightbulbs, and I pulled the trigger, knowing that the price was worth my sanity, at least for now. I love how they work right now. I'm still not sold on the value for the money, but since the cost is in my past for now, I love them.
While perusing through Home Depot for something completely unrelated, I saw a promotional display with those battery-operated motion sensor lights. They weren't too expensive, so I thought I'd buy one and stick it in my wardrobe closet to see if I liked it. It turned out to be instantly useful and appreciated. Not only did the motion sensor work like a charm, almost entirely eliminating my need to flick on and off the light switch as I went in and out of my closet during my morning and evening routines, but it was less shockingly bright and therefore a bit more pleasant. But battery-operated things need battery replacements, and I am lazy, and didn't get to it for a while, so it sat idle on my ceiling for quite some time before I finally replaced the batteries. I think it was more useful for a secondary purpose: it showed me that I prefer motion sensors to light switches or voice-activation in some cases, namely, closets. Its relevant to point out here that I get up substantially earlier than my boyfriend, and so I don't exactly want to be walking around in the morning shouting commands to Alexa everywhere I go. Ultimately, I got another one of the battery-powered motion sensor lights for a hall closet that has a light just outside the closet but not inside, and I love it there just as much as I love it in my wardrobe closet, and for my wardrobe closet, I plan on replacing the light fixture in there with a wired motion sensor light fixture so I can just leave the light switch on and it will turn on and off as I need it to.

What I'm getting at here, is, a truly useful, technologically-enhanced home is not necessarily just these new Smart Home accessories. Duck-to-dawn and motion sensor technologies, and digital timer plugs, have been around for a long time. Come to think of it, sound commands for toggling lights isn't even a new thing with these Smart devices. Clap on, clap off, anyone? I think maybe the really clever applications would be where these old technologies can be used in concert with some of the newer technologies to enhance their features. I think motion sensor lights either got a bad rap from the outdoor flood light application, or are just completely underappreciated. Besides the desire to not disturb my boyfriend in the morning, or for him to disturb me late at night when I'm in bed, I would almost want just about all lights in my house to be motion-sensored. Except maybe not, because the family room light may go off on me if I'm still enough, and that's not the desired effect. Same with the bathroom. (In fact, this happens with my motion-sensor light at my office frequently, but at least I have giant windows that let in a lot of natural light so long as its not dark or stormy outside.) And then there's the bedroom light that we wouldn't want to turn on and off when someone is trying to sleep. So maybe not, really, but I could imagine some clever smart solutions, like: the bedroom lights could be motion sensor lights with a smart switch, and then you could put a timer on the smart switch so that it turns off at bed time and turns back on in the morning; that way the light would turn on in the evening if I'm putting laundry away or just passing through to go to the bathroom, for example, but wouldn't turn on when he comes to bed or when I wake up in the early morning.

For what it's worth, I've always had a strong preference for, and many applications of, motion sensor or dusk-to-dawn nightlights; I use them throughout my house but especially in the hallway from the guest room to the guest bathroom, in both bathrooms, and in the pathway from the bedroom to the kitchen, etc. The main thought behind that is to make sure there is just barely enough light to walk around the house in the middle of the night safely

without causing a lot of light pollution or crazy electric bills or blinding you making it harder to adjust back to the dark, etc. Specifically, I use motion sensor night lights where I don't want the light on all the time, like in the bathroom, and these are typically a bit brighter. I used to use one in the hallway outside my bedroom when I lived alone, because I was paranoid about the idea of someone coming into my house that way, I guess at least I would have a few seconds of warning that someone was coming? In the main living area, I have those color changing dusk-to-dawn night lights because I think they are pretty and they give off just enough light.

So while I may not be past the point of resisting, and am bought into my chosen brand of smart things, I still think we have a long way to go before common homes are truly smart. Like, why can't my front door camera recognize my car or my boyfriend's car and automatically open the garage door for us? And why doesn't the garage door close when we're clearly done in the garage and coming inside, or when the camera sees that we've driven away? My thermostat has an occupancy sensor so if it realizes we've been away longer than normal and I forgot to set a vacation setting, it will automatically adjust the temperature to reduce costs. Why couldn't my floor lamp connect into the same kind of occupancy sensor so that it would go beyond a simply motion sensor and stay on so long as someone is in the room and hasn't gone to bed yet? If my thermostat is on vacation mode, why can't I have it recognize when I'm 20 miles away and automatically resume normal schedules at that time to heat or cool the house prior to my arrival without my intervention? Why can't I set my back porch light to turn on when the camera sees me go to the door? I have my wifi password written on a cute decorative board near the entrance to the house for guests (and for me because, let's face it, I forget it), but for some reason, Alexa won't say the wifi password even when I tried to program it as a routine. What's up with that Alexa? And why can't I write notes on my shower door that are translated into notes on my phone when I'm done showering? Okay, maybe the last one is a little ridiculous, but you see it, right?

Here are some things I do thoroughly enjoy that are technologically cool and/or "Smart." 

I have a really fancy Japanese Toto toilet/washlet that has a remote control, a motion sensor and a small light. When I use the toilet in the middle of the night, the toilet sees me coming and automatically runs a quick rinse cycle and turns on the fan and the light, so I don't actually need a light in the toilet room. The seat temperature is maintained at the warmest level because nothing is worse than a cold toilet seat in the middle of the night. When I'm done with my business, I use the remote to activate the bidet, controlling the water temperature, angle and pressure. I can choose for it to oscillate and/or pulsate. Then I hit another button on the remote to activate the blow dryer, and change the temperature of the air if needed. The washlet is pressure sensitive as well, so when I stand up, it takes a quick second to realize I'm no longer sitting and shuts the fan off automatically. This will work for the water spraying bidet as well, but you run the risk of water splashing outside the toilet if you try this, so I don't recommend it. I love my Toto! It was expensive and requires a plug near the toilet which is not always readily available for this purpose, but it is TOTO-lly worth it. See what I did there? Yeah, it's that awesome.
I mentioned my Ecobee thermostat a couple times but I want to highlight just how amazing it is to be able to turn the heat on in the early morning when you're freezing in bed and don't want to get up out of the covers to turn the heat on. Also similarly life-changing when you're hot and want to turn the A/C up. The added benefit of the integration with Alexa means now I don't even have to have my phone. Since I have Alexa devices all around my house, all I have to do is say it to no direction in particular, and one of the devices will pick it up and confirm back that it has adjusted the heat or A/C.  I love the vacation mode feature and the app, so that I can make updates on the go. When I lived alone and was going to evening school after work, I basically scheduled it as if I wouldn't be home until midnight, and then whenever I was headed home, I would simply adjust the temperature on my app and the house would be adjusted by the time I got there. My schedule is a little more regular these days, so I usually just keep it on a good schedule and once its adjusted just right, I don't often need to make voice commands or changes on the app.

I also mentioned my garage door opener that came with my new house. It is Chamberland branded and works with the myQ app. One of the dumbest things I get paranoid about is whether or not I shut the garage door. I've left the garage door open all night, and since I don't lock the door going into the house from the garage, and I don't lock my cars in the garage, my cars and everything in them as well as my house and my sleeping self was completely exposed to bad actors. Luckily, nothing has ever happened that I know of, but the few times it has been a possibility scares the crap out of me. So the best thing about the myQ app is that it can be set to tell you if the garage has been open for more than 5 minutes. Whether I'm at work or in the house, I will know in short time if I've made that mistake, and can close it from the app without even being home or getting up from the couch or bed or whatnot. The added bonus is that I can open and close it with my phone, so no more running from the button, over the lasers and under the closing door. I added a camera in the garage, so now if my boyfriend is home and happens to leave the garage door open, I can use the camera to peak into the garage to see if he's working in there or doing yard work, etc., or if his car is gone and he forgot to close it. I think all that is pretty neat, but mostly importantly, the alert. It definitely alleviates a lot of anxiety for me.
I have a Weight Gurus scale that links to an app on my phone which then links with my FitBit app which also links to the MyFitnessPal app. I love the interconnectivity, and also love that my weight and BMI gets recorded automatically. Even if I forgot or don't bother to sync it with my phone at the time of weighing myself, it will save the data for the next time I open the app to sync it with the scale and fill in all the missed history. It knows the difference between my boyfriend and I (usually - it got confused when I lost weight rapidly once and didn't know who I was for weeks). Overall, it’s a great smart product that makes my life just that much better and reminds me of my health goals.

As far as the Alexa products and service themselves, there is a lot to like, and a few things to really love.

• One feature I've figured out and put to use recently is to set a sleep timer and then play music. You can stream whatever music you want, and it will shut off when the sleep timer runs out so its not playing all night. Love it! 
• The whisper feature they show on the commercials actually works pretty well, and I've found that useful. 
• I don't use it to manage too much of my life like they show on commercials, like, I don't have it do calendar events or add to my shopping lists or anything like that. But I have a very useful application of the reminder feature: reminding me to check in to a flight 24 hours early. I often have business trips flying out on a Monday, and the day before I'm at home relaxing, reading, etc, and not necessarily paying attention to my phone. My phone may very well remind me to check in, but that's not helpful if I'm not looking at it. So I have Alexa remind me, which interrupts any music or audiobook I'm listening to, and speaks loud enough for me to hear it if I'm watching TV or napping. It's just enough to get my attention to check in right on time, and when you're flying Southwest a lot, you know how important that is!
• The music in multiple rooms seems pretty simple, but is a major reason why I got the devices. The audio books on there are good, too, but like I mentioned before, setting up audiobooks for multiple rooms/speakers has been pretty buggy and doesn't quite work right (yet). It can only improve, I presume, if Amazon knows what's up.
• The devices light up yellow when I have a delivery, which is handy to come home to and see that there may be a package at my door or in my mailbox, if I didn't happen to see it on my camera. Its also handy when I'm just hanging out at the house, as is the camera alert that lets me see that the carrier is delivering something. And for as much as I buy on Amazon, this is a really big deal.
• Turning on and off lights with vocal commands is still a very minor feature for me, more of a bonus I think, but I will admit it is convenient (if not a little enabling of utter laziness) to not have to get up as the sun goes down to turn the light on. It's not as life-changing as controlling the thermostat, for example, but still a nicety. If you have a lot of people in the house, I'd say that there's the added bonus that it doesn't require a person to have the app on their phone, it takes orders from anyone when it comes to turning lights on or off.
• There are, of course, a few Easter Eggs as well as lots of news-related features, but those are mostly novelties in my opinion. The one feature in this category that I do find incredibly useful is asking Alexa if its going to rain today or tomorrow. She is much more efficient in answering this question than I am when trying to find and interpret the weather on whatever app I'm using.

In conclusion, I'm not convinced we're quite ready to say that homes are now really smart yet, but I think there are some neat applications of current technology, and I think there are a lot of opportunities for more exciting applications in the future. Now that I’m bought in, I will hopefully be a part of the early adopter crowd going forward.